Ropa Brent, mezin\u00e1rodn\u00ed benchmark pro ropu, postupn\u011b zohled\u0148ovala geopolitickou rizikovou pr\u00e9mii<\/strong> a v p\u00e1tek dos\u00e1hla 72 dolar\u016f, co\u017e p\u0159edstavuje v\u00fdrazn\u00fd pokles z 61 dolar\u016f na za\u010d\u00e1tku roku. Po \u00fatoku na dv\u011b lod\u011b v ned\u011bli u pob\u0159e\u017e\u00ed Spojen\u00fdch arabsk\u00fdch emir\u00e1t\u016f a Om\u00e1nu Mezin\u00e1rodn\u00ed n\u00e1mo\u0159n\u00ed organizace (IMO) vyzvala p\u0159epravn\u00ed spole\u010dnosti, aby se tomuto regionu \u201evyhnuly\u201c<\/em> . N\u00e1klady na poji\u0161t\u011bn\u00ed se st\u00e1vaj\u00ed ne\u00fanosn\u00fdmi a velk\u00e9 spole\u010dnosti znovu potvrdily sv\u016fj z\u00e1m\u011br se t\u00e9to oblasti vyhnout.<\/p>\n\n\n\n V d\u016fsledku toho je n\u00e1mo\u0159n\u00ed doprava p\u0159es Hormuzsk\u00fd pr\u016fliv<\/a> , kter\u00fdm proch\u00e1z\u00ed asi 20 % sv\u011btov\u00e9 spot\u0159eby ropy (asi 20 milion\u016f barel\u016f denn\u011b), fakticky zastavena. Teoreticky maj\u00ed zem\u011b dov\u00e1\u017eej\u00edc\u00ed ropu rezervy a \u010dlensk\u00e9 st\u00e1ty OECD jsou povinny udr\u017eovat z\u00e1soby dostate\u010dn\u00e9 na 90 dn\u00ed<\/strong> . Nicm\u00e9n\u011b \u201ev p\u0159\u00edpad\u011b del\u0161\u00edho p\u0159eru\u0161en\u00ed dod\u00e1vek p\u0159es Hormuzsk\u00fd pr\u016fliv by cena ropy mohla rychle vzr\u016fst na 100 dolar\u016f za barel (…), zejm\u00e9na v p\u0159\u00edpad\u011b \u00fatok\u016f na ropn\u00e1 za\u0159\u00edzen\u00ed v regionu,\u201c<\/em> varuje Eurasia Group.<\/p>\n\n\n\n Naposledy ceny ropy p\u0159ekro\u010dily hranici 100 dolar\u016f na za\u010d\u00e1tku v\u00e1lky na Ukrajin\u011b<\/strong> , co\u017e v kombinaci s rostouc\u00edmi cenami plynu p\u0159isp\u011blo k prodlou\u017een\u00e9mu infla\u010dn\u00edmu cyklu. V reakci na konflikt Sa\u00fadsk\u00e1 Ar\u00e1bie, Rusko a \u0161est dal\u0161\u00edch \u010dlensk\u00fdch st\u00e1t\u016f OPEC+ v ned\u011bli zv\u00fd\u0161ily sv\u00e9 produk\u010dn\u00ed limity na duben o 206 000 barel\u016f denn\u011b.<\/p>\n\n\n\n \u201eI bez \u00fapln\u00e9ho zastaven\u00ed v\u00fdroby by zv\u00fd\u0161en\u00ed pojistn\u00e9ho souvisej\u00edc\u00ed s konfliktem, zm\u011bny tras a p\u0159ecen\u011bn\u00ed poji\u0161t\u011bn\u00ed mohly udr\u017eet vysok\u00e9 n\u00e1klady na ropu a p\u0159epravu<\/em> ,\u201c poznamen\u00e1v\u00e1 Charu Chanana ze Saxo Markets. \u201eI kdy\u017e by se k obejit\u00ed Gibraltarsk\u00e9ho pr\u016flivu dala pou\u017e\u00edt alternativn\u00ed infrastruktura na Bl\u00edzk\u00e9m v\u00fdchod\u011b, \u010dist\u00e1 ztr\u00e1ta by se st\u00e1le pohybovala mezi <\/em>8 a 10 miliony barel\u016f ropy<\/strong><\/em> ,\u201c<\/em> dod\u00e1v\u00e1 Jorge Leon, analytik spole\u010dnosti Rystad Energy.<\/p>\n\n\n\n \u00cdr\u00e1n s\u00e1m o sob\u011b pat\u0159\u00ed mezi deset nejv\u011bt\u0161\u00edch sv\u011btov\u00fdch producent\u016f a produkuje p\u0159ibli\u017en\u011b 3,1 milionu barel\u016f denn\u011b. \u00datoky na jeho infrastrukturu by mohly m\u00edt dlouhodob\u00e9 n\u00e1sledky. V bl\u00edzk\u00e9 budoucnosti by \u010d\u00ednsk\u00e9 rafinerie byly obzvl\u00e1\u0161t\u011b posti\u017eeny dlouhodob\u00fdm naru\u0161en\u00edm dod\u00e1vek \u00edr\u00e1nsk\u00e9 ropy, kterou nakupuj\u00ed v p\u0159ev\u00e1\u017en\u00e9 v\u011bt\u0161in\u011b \u2013 \u00cdr\u00e1n se pod\u00edl\u00ed na p\u0159ibli\u017en\u011b 13 % \u010d\u00ednsk\u00e9ho dovozu ropy po mo\u0159i. Podle Mezin\u00e1rodn\u00ed energetick\u00e9 agentury je nav\u00edc v\u00edce ne\u017e 80 % ropy a plynu p\u0159epravovan\u00e9ho Hormuzsk\u00fdm pr\u016flivem ur\u010deno pro asijsk\u00e9 trhy.<\/p>\n\n\n\n V p\u0159\u00edpad\u011b \u00cdr\u00e1nu by \u201e\u010c\u00edna ztratila zdroj levn\u00e9 ropy. Rusko by z toho mohlo profitovat, proto\u017ee indick\u00e1 a \u010d\u00ednsk\u00e1 popt\u00e1vka by se pravd\u011bpodobn\u011b p\u0159esunula k rop\u011b Urals<\/em> ,\u201c poznamen\u00e1v\u00e1 spole\u010dnost TD Securities, citovan\u00e1 agenturou Bloomberg. \u201e Vysok\u00e9 ceny ropy<\/strong><\/em> jsou Achillovou patou (americk\u00e9ho prezidenta Donalda) Trumpa <\/em>,\u201c<\/em> dod\u00e1v\u00e1 Michelle Brouhardov\u00e1, analyti\u010dka spole\u010dnosti Kpler, kter\u00e1 se domn\u00edv\u00e1, \u017ee se Teher\u00e1n m\u016f\u017ee sna\u017eit udr\u017eet ceny ropy vysok\u00e9, aby vyvinul tlak na Washington. Pravd\u011bpodobn\u011b porostou i ceny plynu<\/strong> : p\u011btina celosv\u011btov\u00e9ho obchodu se zkapaln\u011bn\u00fdm zemn\u00edm plynem proch\u00e1z\u00ed tak\u00e9 Hormuzsk\u00fdm pr\u016flivem, v\u011bt\u0161inou z Kataru.<\/strong><\/em><\/em><\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n Oxford Economics v\u0161ak poznamen\u00e1v\u00e1, \u017ee \u201ev\u00e1\u017en\u00e9 a dlouhodob\u00e9 naru\u0161en\u00ed provozu je nepravd\u011bpodobn\u00e9<\/em> \u201c. \u201eTo by donutilo \u00cdr\u00e1n k udr\u017een\u00ed <\/em>bezprecedentn\u00ed n\u00e1mo\u0159n\u00ed blok\u00e1dy<\/strong><\/em> a br\u00e1nit se proti okam\u017eit\u00e9 vojensk\u00e9, ekonomick\u00e9 a diplomatick\u00e9 reakci, kterou by to vyvolalo ze strany velk\u00fdch mocnost\u00ed,<\/em> \u201c vysv\u011btluj\u00ed a p\u0159edpov\u00eddaj\u00ed m\u00edsto toho \u201ekr\u00e1tkodob\u00fd dopad\u201c na trhy.<\/p>\n\n\n\n Ceny by mohly v nadch\u00e1zej\u00edc\u00edch t\u00fddnech klesnout, pokud \u201enedojde k \u017e\u00e1dn\u00fdm v\u011bt\u0161\u00edm naru\u0161en\u00edm v\u00fdroby<\/em> \u201c, dod\u00e1v\u00e1 Giovanni Staunovo z UBS. Podle Eurasia Group se pobl\u00ed\u017e Hormuzu nach\u00e1zej\u00ed \u201e des\u00edtky\u201c<\/em> nalo\u017een\u00fdch tanker\u016f, \u201ev\u011bt\u0161ina z nich kotv\u00ed nebo ukotvuje v oblastech kryt\u00fdch syst\u00e9my protivzdu\u0161n\u00e9 obrany\u201c,<\/em> a pokud krize ustoup\u00ed, \u201eby tyto lod\u011b mohly rychle obnovit dod\u00e1vky na glob\u00e1ln\u00ed trh\u201c.<\/em><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"Nap\u011bt\u00ed v \u00cdr\u00e1nu zvy\u0161uje ceny ropy. Blok\u00e1da Hormuzsk\u00e9ho pr\u016flivu ohro\u017euje 20 % sv\u011btov\u00fdch z\u00e1sob ropy, co\u017e zvy\u0161uje obavy na trz\u00edch. Cena ropy Brent \n [...]<\/a>","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":5802,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[1],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-5801","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-blog"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/fakt24.biz.ua\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/5801","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/fakt24.biz.ua\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/fakt24.biz.ua\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/fakt24.biz.ua\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/fakt24.biz.ua\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcomments&post=5801"}],"version-history":[{"count":1,"href":"https:\/\/fakt24.biz.ua\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/5801\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":5803,"href":"https:\/\/fakt24.biz.ua\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/5801\/revisions\/5803"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/fakt24.biz.ua\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/media\/5802"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/fakt24.biz.ua\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fmedia&parent=5801"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/fakt24.biz.ua\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcategories&post=5801"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/fakt24.biz.ua\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Ftags&post=5801"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}![\"Ceny](\"https:\/\/www.capital.fr\/imgre\/fit\/~1~cap~2019~09~10~3cd62edb-3eea-4c46-8a5a-361d4d1f4724.jpeg\/100x100\/focus-point\/50%2C50\/le-petrole-poursuit-sa-chute-le-baril-de-brent-passe-sous-le-seuil-des-60-dollars.jpg\")
<\/a><\/figure>\n\n\n\n20 % celosv\u011btov\u00e9 spot\u0159eby pozastaveno<\/h2>\n\n\n\n
![\"Zadr\u017een\u00ed](\"https:\/\/www.capital.fr\/imgre\/fit\/~1~cap~2026~01~26~24e5a90a-c8f9-4ac4-b84e-93506141f3e9.jpg\/100x100\/focus-point\/1513%2C1153\/petrolier-russe-arraisonne-le-capitaine-place-en-garde-a-vue-a-marseille.jpg\")
<\/a><\/figure>\n\n\n\n\u00cdr\u00e1n, jeden z nejv\u011bt\u0161\u00edch producent\u016f na sv\u011bt\u011b<\/h2>\n\n\n\n
![\"Venezuela:](\"https:\/\/www.capital.fr\/imgre\/fit\/~1~cap~2026~01~12~ec1ce9b7-9fe8-4b7e-8213-0d7d024eacb0.jpg\/100x100\/focus-point\/783%2C1310\/venezuela-pourquoi-l-industrie-du-petrole-est-reticente-a-investir-malgre-les-appels-de-donald-trump.jpg\")
<\/a><\/figure>\n\n\n\nAchillova pata Donalda Trumpa<\/h2>\n\n\n\n
![\"Celkov\u011b:](\"https:\/\/www.capital.fr\/imgre\/fit\/~1~cap~2026~02~24~380def8e-45d7-417b-946e-0efc68773541.jpeg\/100x100\/focus-point\/1200%2C800\/total-les-actions-du-geant-du-petrole-du-cac-40-explosent-en-bourse-encore-du-potentiel-pour-2026.jpg\")
<\/a><\/figure>\n\n\n\n